[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 October 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X1/2B    1759UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic
 M6/2N    1508UT  probable   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
 M1/SF    0040UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 233/183

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Oct             24 Oct             25 Oct
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   230/180            220/170            220/170

COMMENT: Flares and shortwave fadeouts expected due to active 
solar region. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
22/1730UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Storm levels 

Estimated Indices 22 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      63   6545 6666
      Darwin              57   6535 5666
      Learmonth           61   6535 6665
      Canberra            58   6545 5665
      Hobart              76   6546 6766
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 OCT : 
      Darwin              70   (Active)
      Townsville          16   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           67   (Active)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        45
           Planetary             75                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        29
           Planetary             40   2332 3667     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Oct    35    Active to Minor storm 
24 Oct    20    active 
25 Oct    30    Active to Minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 39 was issued on 19 October 
and is current for interval 21-24 October. Disturbed geomagnetic 
conditions expected during the forecast period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Fair           Fair-poor      
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 22 10 2001 2025UT and is 
            in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Fair           Fair           Poor(PCA)
24 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Poor(PCA)
25 Oct      Fair           Fair           Poor(PCA)
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
22 Oct    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 35% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
     Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Oct    70    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
24 Oct    90    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
25 Oct    70    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 58 was issued on 19 October 
and is current for interval 22-23 October. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 359 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    48700 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060