[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 October 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 187/140

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Oct             06 Oct             07 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            190/143            195/147




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 04 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   3235 3324
      Darwin              14   2234 3334
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth           17   3235 3324
      Canberra            12   323- ----
      Hobart              20   3245 4323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 OCT : 
      Darwin              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           16   (Quiet)
      Canberra            42   (Unsettled)
      Hobart             110   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        26
           Planetary             53   4357 6644     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Oct    12    Unsettled 
06 Oct     7    Quiet 
07 Oct     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Magnetic activity is expected to be unsettled to quiet 
due to CME passage. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Oct      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 01 10 2001 0945UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Degraded mid to high latitudes recovered. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
04 Oct   101

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Oct   100    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Oct   110    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Oct   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.8E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 528 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    49000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060