[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 October 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M1.2/SF 01/2340UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
M1.0/SF    1123UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 201/153

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Oct             04 Oct             05 Oct
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            195/147            190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity may reduce due to pending departure of 
active solar regions in south-west limb. M class producing regions 
remain in north-west quadrant. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
02/2035UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Unsettled to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 02 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      27   3364 3344
      Darwin              18   3353 2334
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth           20   4253 2345
      Canberra            26   3364 3334
      Hobart              29   3464 3344
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 OCT : 
      Darwin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           16   (Quiet)
      Canberra            56   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              65   (Active)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             40                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             50   4566 5435     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Oct    30    Active to Minor storm 
04 Oct    17    active 
05 Oct    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 1 October and 
is current for interval 2-3 October. CME related activity expected 
to gradually decline after 03 Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 01 10 2001 0945UT and is 
	    in progress (declining).

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Oct      Fair           Fair           Poor(PCA)
04 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected mid to high latitudes for 
today, then gradually improving. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
02 Oct   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed 15-20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Absorption observed first half of day.
      Enhaced by 20% during second half of day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Oct    80    Depressed 20% after local dawn (Southern Aus).
03 Oct   140    Enhanced  20% after local dawn (Northern Aus).
04 Oct   100    Depressed 15% after local dawn then recovering. 
05 Oct   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Northern region MUFs currently enhanced 20%. Southern region 
MUFs south of Sydney, depressed 15-30% after local this morning. 
Shortwave fadeouts likely on daylight HF circuits. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 502 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    86800 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060