[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 November 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED**  MAG:*YELLOW*   ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M6/1B    1635UT  probable   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
 M2/1F 27/2121UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 199/151

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Nov             30 Nov             01 Dec
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            210/161            220/170




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 28 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2121 1112
      Darwin               2   1011 0122
      Learmonth            0   1000 0102
      Canberra             2   1010 1112
      Hobart               2   1010 1112
      Casey(Ant)           9   3233 1123
      Davis(Ant)           9   3233 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 NOV : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1000 0211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
30 Nov     6    Quiet 
01 Dec    25    Unsettled to active levels with possible minor 
                storm periods. 
COMMENT: A partial halo CME observed in association with an M6-flare 
at 1635UT on 28 November is expected to impact the Earth on 1 
December and produce mildly elevated levels of geomagnetic activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : Began at 0010UT 23/11, Ended at 1435UT 27/11
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
01 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Mildly enhanced geomagnetic activity anticipated for 
1 December may produce slightly degraded HF conditions for that 
day. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
28 Nov   187

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Normal to enhanced at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Nov   160    near predicted monthly values 
30 Nov   160    near predicted monthly values 
01 Dec   100    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 77 was issued on 28 November 
and is current for interval 28-30 November (SWFs) . Mildly enhanced 
geomagnetic activity anticipated for 1 December may produce slightly 
degraded HF conditions for that day. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 458 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    74200 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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