[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 175/129

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Nov             28 Nov             29 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            180/133            185/138
COMMENT: Moderate solar activity expected due to a region on 
disk in the north-east quadrant showing increased flare potential 
(increase in area/magnetic complexity), and due to the possibility 
of returning solar regions in the south-east and north-east limb 
of the Sun. 
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9687 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 27 Nov. Also, previously M-flare(s) 
preducing region 9692 is also due for return to the north-east 
limb around this day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2232 1112
      Darwin               4   2121 112-
      Learmonth            7   2133 003-
      Canberra             4   1131 1012
      Hobart               5   2231 0101
      Casey(Ant)          13   3343 3113
      Davis(Ant)          13   3343 3112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 NOV : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   3223 2322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Nov    14    Unsettled to Active 
29 Nov     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Recurrence patterns suggest a very weak activity on 
28 Nov. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair      
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 11 2001 0010UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair     
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair          
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions starting to improve, as 
proton event declines, and flux is currently just above event 
threshold. Mild degradation in HF comss quailty expected around 
28 Nov at high latitudes only. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
26 Nov   152

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced 15%. Increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Nov   165    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
28 Nov   160    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
29 Nov   110    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 75 was issued on 23 November 
and is current for interval 24-27 November. MUFs expected to 
be near to 15% above normal. Midly depressed conditions possible 
after local dawn 29 Nov, due to weak recurrent geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  8.7E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 644 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    50300 K  Bz:   9 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060