[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 25 10:33:28 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 173/127
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 175/129
COMMENT: SOHO MTOF Proton solar wind monitor showed two shocks,
the first small shock just after 0400UT (wind speed jump 400-500km/sec),
the second much larger shock (wind speed jump 500-700km/sec)
at around 0540UT. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field as measured by ACE, was strongly southward post shock
reaching -40nT at around 0618UT. Solar wind speed appears to have
peaked at around 1000km/sec (instrument limit?) at near 14UT on 24Nov.
Solar wind speed is currently running fast at 700km/sec, with low
density and a general declining trend. Bz currently mildly northward.
ACE solar wind detector recovered around 18UT 24 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Severe Storm Levels
Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A K
Australian Region 126 4788 7634
Darwin 115 3678 8635
Learmonth 100 3677 8625
Canberra 104 3777 7734
Hobart 112 3778 --44
Casey(Ant) 154 5889 6544
Davis(Ant) 183 4899 7544
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 NOV :
Darwin 116 (Major storm)
Townsville 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 151 (Severe storm)
Hobart 121 (Severe storm)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 95
Planetary 105
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 3222 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Nov 25 active
26 Nov 13 Unsettled to Active
27 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT:A weak (35nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 0501UT on 24 Nov, and a strong (102nT) impulse was observed at 0556UT
on 24 Nov. The first weak impulse was likely to be due to an earlier
mass ejection associated with a C4.7 flare on 21 Nov. The second much
stronger impulse was likely to be from both the M3.8 and (X1)M9.9 event,
and arrived 1 day sooner than expected. The LASCO group has just recently
provided an CME speed of 1500km/sec for the X1 event. A speed of 900km/sec
for the M3.8 and 500km/sec for the X1 (TypeII) was used to provide
the initial arrival time for the main disturbance. This faster
shock speed may mean that X1 shock overtook the M3.8 shock or
they somehow merged into one event. Severe storm levels followed
this second impulse. A gradual decline in activity is now expected
over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal-poor Normal-poor Poor (PCA)
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 11 2001 0010UT and is
in progress.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Fair-normal Poor-fair Poor-fair
26 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions remain useless due to PCA.
Proton event expected to end later today/early day 2. Strongly
degraded condiyions observe dpast 24 hours. MUFs for today are
expected to be depressed after local dawn, following overnight
geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Nov 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Nov 50 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
26 Nov 100 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
27 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 76 was issued on 24 November
and is current for interval 25 November only. Strongly degraded/depressed
HF conditions observed overnight due to earlier than expected
arrival of geomagnetic activity. Strongly depressed MUfs expected
for today, recovering toward end of UT day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+08
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: M1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: NA Density: NA Temp: NA Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list