[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 November 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:**YELLOW**   ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 191/143

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Nov             21 Nov             22 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            185/138            180/133
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1734UT on 
19 Nov. Shock from recent M2.8 flare/CME on 17 Nov. Previously 
M-flare(s) producing region 9682 is due for return to the 
north-east limb around 20 Nov. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 19 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      18   4333 3344
      Darwin              13   3222 3344
      Learmonth           19   4223 3354
      Canberra            14   3223 3344
      Hobart              18   3333 3443
      Casey(Ant)          18   4--3 3244
      Davis(Ant)          25   444- 4434
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 NOV : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              19   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   2222 2322     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active 
21 Nov    12    Unsettled 
22 Nov     5    Quiet 
COMMENT:A weak (16nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter 
data at 1815UT on 19 Nov. Active periods observed due to CME 
associated with M2.8 event on 17 nov. Isolated active periods 
expected today then declining. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 19 11 2001 1240UT and 
	    is in progress.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal         Fair-Normal    Poor(PCA)
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Polar region HF communications degraded late in UT day 
due to increased proton flux from M2.8 flare on 17 Nov. Mild 
geomagnetic activity may cuase degraded conditions at mid latitudes 
during local night hours, and briefly after local dawn. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
19 Nov   121

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Absorption observed late in UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Nov   130    15% depressed at some southern region sites, 
                to 15% enhanced in northern region. 
21 Nov   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
22 Nov   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Some suthern region sites mildly depressed after local 
dawn this morning (Christchurch in particular is 25% depressed) 
Most northern region sites near to 15% above normal. Mild degradation 
in conditions due to mild overnight geomagnetic activity from 
recent CME on 17 Nov. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:    96300 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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