[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 May 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 152/107

GOES satellite data for 21 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 May             24 May             25 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            165/119

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2112 1222
      Darwin               7   2222 1233
      Townsville           2   1001 1112
      Learmonth            8   2222 2323
      Canberra             5   2112 1222
      Hobart               4   1112 1211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 MAY : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          64   (Active)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              8   2112 3332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 May    28    Active to minor storm 
24 May    18    Active 
25 May    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 20 May and 
is current for interval 23-24 May. Coronal hole induced activity 
is expected. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
24 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
22 May   112

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 May   100    Near predicted monthly values 
24 May    80    about 15% below predicted monthly values 
25 May   100    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Expected coronal hole induced activity may produce ionospheric 
depressions 24 May. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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