[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M6/--    0603UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian
 M1/--    0920UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 142/96

GOES satellite data for 19 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 May             22 May             23 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1211 1211
      Darwin               4   1221 1112
      Townsville           1   0100 0111
      Learmonth            5   1221 2222
      Canberra             2   0111 1201
      Hobart               3   1211 1200
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 MAY : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          64   (Active)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   4422 3332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 May     7    Quiet to unsettled 
22 May     7    Quiet to unsettled 
23 May     7    Quiet to unsettled 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
20 May   108

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 
22 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 
23 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060