[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F    0856UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 161/115

GOES satellite data for 04 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 May             07 May             08 May
Activity     Low to Moderate    Low to Moderate    Low to Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             140/94

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1100 0011
      Darwin               2   1110 0021
      Townsville           1   1100 0012
      Learmonth            4   2111 1122
      Canberra             0   0000 0010
      Hobart               0   1000 0010
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 MAY : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   1333 2222     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 May     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 May    12    Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
05 May   135

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 May   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
07 May   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 May   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 


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