[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 May 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 4 09:16:53 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 172/126
GOES satellite data for 02 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 May 05 May 06 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 160/114
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 May : A K
Australian Region 7 2113 2221
Darwin 6 2212 2222
Townsville 7 2113 2222
Learmonth 9 2223 2322
Canberra 5 2112 2211
Hobart 5 1113 2210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 MAY :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2132 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 May 15 Unsettled to Active
05 May 13 Unsettled to Active
06 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Possible slight increase in geomagnetic activity due
to a coronal high solar wind stream. Recurrent pattern is strongest
on 05 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected at high latitudes next few
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 May 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 May 130 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 130 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced for
southern region Aus/NZ during local night hours 4-5 May.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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