[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 May 01

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 4 09:16:53 EST 2001


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 172/126

GOES satellite data for 02 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 May             05 May             06 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            165/119            160/114

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2113 2221
      Darwin               6   2212 2222
      Townsville           7   2113 2222
      Learmonth            9   2223 2322
      Canberra             5   2112 2211
      Hobart               5   1113 2210
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 MAY : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Hobart              40   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   2132 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 May    15    Unsettled to Active 
05 May    13    Unsettled to Active 
06 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Possible slight increase in geomagnetic activity due 
to a coronal high solar wind stream. Recurrent pattern is strongest 
on 05 May. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected at high latitudes next few 
days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
03 May   136

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 May   130    Near predicted monthly values 
05 May   130    Near predicted monthly values 
06 May   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced for 
southern region Aus/NZ during local night hours 4-5 May. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 




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