[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN   ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    0138UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
 M1/2F    1955UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 219/169

GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Mar             26 Mar             27 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            200/152            200/152



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 24 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       14   2332 4332
      Darwin               12   2322 4232
      Townsville           12   2332 4223
      Learmonth            14   2332 4331
      Canberra             15   1333 4333
      Hobart               20   2443 5322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 MAR : 
      Darwin                2   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             16   (Quiet)
      Hobart               22   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             21   3444 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Mar    12    Unsettled 
26 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal-fair    Poor-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal with 
possible depressions of 10-20% at times for mid-high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
24 Mar    88

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10-20% to near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Mar   110    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
26 Mar   120    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Mar   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal with 
possible depressions of 10-20% at times for mid-high latitudes. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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