[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0515UT  possible   lower  East Asia/Australia
  M1.6    0822UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.1    1320UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 183/136

GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Mar             24 Mar             25 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            180/133


A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1241UT on 22 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region        9   1222 3333
      Darwin                9   2222 3323
      Townsville            9   2222 3323
      Learmonth            12   2222 3434
      Canberra              9   1221 3333
      Hobart                5   0222 2---
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 MAR : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             19   4331 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
24 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
25 Mar    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: A weak shock was observed in the solar wind parameters 
at 1241UT which produced a sudden impulse in the geomagnetic 
field of 20-30nT across the Australian region at 1341UT. The 
shock is likely to be due to the CME event observed on 20 March. 
Unsettled to active levels followed the sudden impulse in the 
geomagnetic field. Mostly unsettled to active conditions are 
expected over the next couple of days due to a coronal hole. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
24 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal with 
possible depressions of 10-20% at times over the next couple 
of days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
22 Mar   151

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% at times.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Mar   120    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
24 Mar   125    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Mar   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal with 
possible depressions of 10-20% at times over the next couple 
of days. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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