[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 158/112

GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Mar             14 Mar             15 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            150/105

COMMENT: Region 9373 (S08E48) is the larger region currently 
on the visible solar disk and growing in size and complexity. 
Together with the newly emerged active region 9376 (S11E75), 
both may increase the solar activity over the following days. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region        9   1122 3333
      Darwin                9   1122 3333
      Townsville            9   1122 3333
      Learmonth             9   2122 3334
      Canberra              8   1122 3323
      Hobart                7   0122 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 MAR : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              2   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   0101 2121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Mar     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Mar     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Unsettled conditions observed after 1200 UT on 12 March 
were due to a long interval of IMF Bz negative (-7nT) following 
the arrival of weak shock presumably associated with the M1 flare/CMEs 
observed on 8 MAR. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal over the next 
few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
12 Mar   148

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Mar   145    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Mar   145    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Mar   145    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal over the next 
following days. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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