[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*  ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 156/110

GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Mar             07 Mar             08 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            155/109            160/114



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       10   3332 2222
      Darwin               10   3332 2223
      Townsville           10   3332 2222
      Learmonth            18   5432 2323
      Canberra             11   3333 2212
      Hobart               11   3333 2212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 MAR : 
      Darwin                2   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            12   (Quiet)
      Canberra             27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               82   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             24                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             17   3343 3344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Mar    15    Mostly unsettled with the chance of active periods. 
07 Mar    12    Unsettled 
08 Mar     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters have indicated the presence of 
a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream which is expected 
to produce isolated active periods for 6 March. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal over the next 
few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
05 Mar   136

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      otherwise enhanced by greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15-30% at times.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Mar   125    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Mar   130    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Mar   135    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal over the next 
few days. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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