[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JUNE 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 162/116

GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jun             13 Jun             14 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            155/109            155/109

COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to decline following coronal
hole effects. Isolated M class flaring possible. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2101 2122
      Darwin               3   2101 1122
      Townsville           2   0001 1120
      Learmonth            7   3112 2222
      Canberra             5   3111 2122
      Hobart               3   2101 2112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 JUN : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville          64   (Active)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             20   5344 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions expected. Mild degradation may 
remain at high latitudes, local night hours. Recurrence suggests 
mild degradation is possible on 15 June. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
11 Jun   134

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 118

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jun   125    near predicted monthly values 
13 Jun   125    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Jun   125    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected local day. 

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