[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JULY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:**YELLOW**     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 146/100

GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jul             19 Jul             20 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            150/105
COMMENT: SEC region 9539 appears to have quietened in past 24 
hours. A coronal mass ejection has been reported in ISES UCMEO 
code in association with an erupting solar filamment 16/1606-17/1218UT. 
CME was 149 degrees in span, across the northern hemisphere of 
the solar disk, and based on this information is considered  
non-geoeffective. Solar wind speed has increased to 650km/sec toward 
end of UT day, probably coronal hole related. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   3322 2221
      Darwin               9   3322 2221
      Townsville           8   3312 1222
      Learmonth           14   3423 3322
      Canberra            10   3323 2221
      Hobart              10   3322 3221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 JUL : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             17   3433 3434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild activity may extend to 18 july, with southward 
IMF, and mildly elevated solar wind speed. Conditions are then 
expected to be quiet until around 22 July, as an other recurrent 
pattern implies mild geomagentic activity on this day. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mildly degarded conditions expected local night hours 
mid to high latitudes due to elevated solar wind speed. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
17 Jul   118

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jul   115    near predicted monthly values 
19 Jul   115    near predicted monthly values 
20 Jul   115    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions expected local night hours. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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