[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JULY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 134/88

GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jul             14 Jul             15 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was mildly southward 06-16UT. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1222 2122
      Darwin               6   2222 2122
      Townsville           2   1110 1010
      Learmonth            7   2222 2222
      Canberra             6   1-22 2223
      Hobart               5   1112 2221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 JUL : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   3311 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jul     7    Quiet 
14 Jul     7    Quiet 
15 Jul    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests mild activity possible on 16 July. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation at high latitudes, local night hours, 
due to mildy southward IMF. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
12 Jul   110

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jul   120    near predicted monthly values 
14 Jul   120    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Jul   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation local night hours southern Aus/NZ region, 
associated with southward IMF. 

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