[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 July 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JULY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 126/79

GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jul             10 Jul             11 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             140/94             145/99

COMMENT: A solar region in the south-east quadrant showed grwoth 
overnight. A type II radio sweep was observed around 0330UT on 
07 July. Event data suggests arrival on 10 July. However, no 
activity is expected as no Type IV sweep followed the type II 
event, implying that no mass ejection has occured. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 08 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2222 2233
      Darwin               8   2231 1233
      Townsville           4   2121 1122
      Learmonth           11   2332 2334
      Canberra             8   2222 2232
      Hobart               8   2222 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 JUL : 
      Darwin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              32   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2212 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jul     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Jul     9    Quiet to unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
08 Jul   112

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jul   120    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Jul   120    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Jul   120    Near predicted monthly values 


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