[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 January 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 167/121

GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jan             29 Jan             30 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            160/114


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region        3   2111 0113
      Darwin                2   2101 0112
      Townsville            3   2111 0114
      Learmonth             5   3211 1112
      Canberra              3   2121 0013
      Hobart                5   2222 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 JAN : 
      Darwin                4   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   2243 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jan     3    Quiet 
29 Jan     4    Quiet 
30 Jan    11    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests unsettled to active conditions on 
31 Jan. A very outside chance for a small impulse in the field 
second half of UT day on 29 Jan. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
27 Jan   118

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mildy depressed to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jan   120    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Jan   120    Near predicted monthly values 
30 Jan   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly depressed conditions again observed at some southern 
region sites after dawn this morning. Northern region MUFs near 
normal. Depression is not expected to persist. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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