[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 January 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 169/123

GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jan             27 Jan             28 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            165/119

COMMENT: A recent M1 flare producing region is rotating offdisk. 
The region that produced the M7 event on 20 Jan is now in the 
western hemisphere of the solar disk. This region has not produced 
an M flare since the M7 event. Solar wind speed steadily declined 
from 440 to 320km/sec. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region        4   2211 0223
      Darwin                3   -111 0223
      Townsville            6   2211 0233
      Learmonth             7   3212 1223
      Canberra              5   2221 0223
      Hobart                5   2221 0223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 JAN : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             18   2314 5443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jan     7    Quiet 
27 Jan     2    Quiet 
28 Jan     3    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions observed yesterday. 
Conditions expected to be improved today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
25 Jan   110

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mildly depressed to Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mildly depressed to Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jan   120    near predicted monthly values 
27 Jan   120    near predicted monthly values 
28 Jan   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly depressed conditions observed at some southern 
region sites. 

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