[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 January 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 167/121

GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jan             25 Jan             26 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            160/114
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 23 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       14   2214 3344
      Darwin               15   3214 3344
      Townsville           15   2215 3334
      Learmonth            21   3215 3354
      Canberra             12   2214 3334
      Hobart               13   2224 3334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 JAN : 
      Darwin                4   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             14   (Quiet)
      Hobart               38   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   3322 3322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jan    13    Unsettled to Active 
25 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Jan     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 20 January and 
is current for interval 22-24 January. A sudden impulse of 60nT 
was detected at around 1048UT at Canberra. The shock's arrival 
triggered unsettled to active levels of geomagnetic activity. 
Unsettled to active conditions are likely to persist over the 
24 Jan. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Chance SWFs over the next couple days. Slightly depressed 
MUFs may be expected on the 24 JAN following the arrival of a 
shock associated with the recent CME activity of region 9313 
at 1048UT on 23 JAN. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
23 Jan   104

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jan   110    about 5% below predicted monthly values 
25 Jan   120    near predicted monthly values 
26 Jan   140    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 22 January 
and is current for interval 23-24 January. Chance of depressed 
ionospheric conditions are expected for the 24 JAN following 
the arrival of a shock at 1048UT on 23 JAN associated the full 
halo CME observed on the 20 JAN. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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