[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/-- 03/2355UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 175/129

GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jan             06 Jan             07 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            175/129

COMMENT: Solar wind speed peaked at around 440km/sec near 16UT, 
and appears to be declining. The M1 event was from a solar region 
that is rotating onto the solar disk. A coronal hole is approaching 
the centre of the solar disk, in the Sun's southern hemisphere. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 04 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       14   2233 4332
      Darwin               13   2223 4332
      Townsville           15   3233 4333
      Learmonth            19   2233 5432
      Canberra             13   2233 4322
      Hobart               11   1233 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 JAN : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               13   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   2423 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jan    12    Unsettled 
06 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Jan     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to quiet 
levels over the next 3 days. The coronal hole may cause a very 
mild increase in geomagnetic activity 8-9 Jan, although recurrent 
patterns suggest this is unlikely. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mildy degraded comms at high latitudes. Initially mildly 
degraded comms may be experienced at high latitudes today then 
expected to be improving. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
04 Jan   145

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jan   145    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Jan   145    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Jan   145    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF comms quality local night hours, 
Norfolk Island MUFs depressed 15-20% after local dawn this morning. 

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