[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 January 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 176/130

GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jan             04 Jan             05 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            165/119

COMMENT: A mild increase in solar wind speed and density after 
13UT, may indicate we are entering coronal hole wind stream. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region        3   1110 2123
      Darwin                3   1110 2124
      Townsville            2   1000 2123
      Learmonth             4   2110 2123
      Canberra              3   1110 2023
      Hobart                2   1100 2023
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 JAN : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0011 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jan    13    Unsettled to Active 
04 Jan    17    active 
05 Jan    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests active periods can be expected 3-4 
Jan. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions, local night hours 
at high latitudes 3-4 Jan. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
02 Jan   153

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jan   160    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Jan   160    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Jan   160    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF comms quality expected local 
night hours tonight, southern region AUs/NZ only. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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