[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 February 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 135/89

GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Feb             28 Feb             01 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             140/94

COMMENT: A coronal mass ejection observed around 06UT on/behind 
northwest limb. Event was mostly westward directed, however it 
is possible that a portion may be earth directed. Event appeared 
associated with a small impulsive C1.6 xray flare. Proton flux 
levels became midly elevated after around 10UT. Solar wind speed 
gradually increased from 280km/sec to 340km/sec after 16UT. This 
mild increase is probbaly due to a coronal hole in the suns southern 
hemisphere. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region        6   1211 2322
      Darwin                5   1101 2322
      Townsville            5   1111 2321
      Learmonth             8   2211 2422
      Canberra              6   0211 2322
      Hobart                7   1211 233-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 FEB : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra              2   (Quiet)
      Hobart                2   (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   0011 1210     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
28 Feb    16    Unsettled to Active
01 Mar    12    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mild coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity expected 
27 Feb. It is possible that a glancing blow from the recent CME 
may mildly effect/extend geomagnetic activity late on 28 Feb. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Some high latitude sites observe increased absorption 
16-17UT, possibly in association with increased proton flux levels. 
Mild degradation in HF conditions expected local night hours 
27-28 Feb. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
26 Feb   156

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Feb   135    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
28 Feb   100    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
01 Mar   110    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions expected southern 
region during local night hours 27 Feb, and possible mild depression 
after local dawn 28 Feb. 

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