[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 February 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 137/91

GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Feb             26 Feb             27 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             135/89

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region        4   1211 2111
      Darwin                3   1111 2011
      Townsville            3   1111 210-
      Learmonth             7   3212 2222
      Canberra              2   1201 2000
      Hobart                3   1211 2101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 FEB : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               30   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   3342 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Feb     3    Quiet 
26 Feb     7    Quiet 
27 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT:Mild coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity expected
27 Feb.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
24 Feb   137

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Feb   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
26 Feb   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
27 Feb   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 


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