[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 February 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 144/98

GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Feb             23 Feb             24 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            150/105
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   2222 2101
      Darwin                5   2222 2102
      Townsville            5   2222 2101
      Learmonth             7   3222 2212
      Canberra              5   2222 2100
      Hobart                6   2222 3101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 FEB : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              4   (Quiet)
      Hobart                2   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   1123 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Feb     7    Quiet 
23 Feb     6    Quiet 
24 Feb     7    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
21 Feb   136

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Feb   125    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Feb   125    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Feb   125    Near predicted monthly values 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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