[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 February 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 130/84

GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Feb             19 Feb             20 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             135/89
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region        2   2000 0212
      Darwin                1   2000 0113
      Townsville            1   1000 0211
      Learmonth             5   3111 1212
      Canberra              1   1000 0202
      Hobart                1   1000 0202
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 FEB : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0001 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Feb    30    Active to Minor storm 
19 Feb    12    Unsettled 
20 Feb     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 16 February 
and is current for interval 17-19 February. Active to minor storm 
levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected early on 18 feb 
following the anticipated arrival of a shock associated with 
a full halo CME and long duration B8.8 flare observed on 15 feb 
after 1308 UT. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-poor     
19 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-normal   
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs may be expected on 18 feb following the 
anticipated arrival of a shock associated with a full halo CME 
and long duration B8.8 flare observed after 1308UT on 15 feb. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
17 Feb   150

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Feb   100    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
19 Feb   130    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
20 Feb   135    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 16 February 
and is current for interval 18-19 February. Depressed ionospheric 
conditions may be expected for 18 feb following the anticipated 
arrival of a shock associated with a full halo CME and long duration 
B8.8 flare activity observed after 1308 UT on the 15 feb. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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