[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 138/92

GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Feb             16 Feb             17 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             145/99


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 14 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       13   2223 4333
      Darwin                9   223- ----
      Townsville           10   1222 4233
      Learmonth            16   3223 44-3
      Canberra             13   2223 4333
      Hobart               14   2323 4333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 FEB : 
      Darwin               NA
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            110   (Major storm)
      Hobart              118   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             19   2443 3444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Feb    14    Unsettled to Active 
16 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Unsettled to active periods may be expected 15 feb due 
to recent CME activity 11-12Feb. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Southern and high-latitudes Australian regions HF propagation 
conditions degraded by recent mild geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
14 Feb    89

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Feb   105    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
16 Feb   110    near predicted monthly values 
17 Feb   116    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 13 February 
and is current for interval 14-15 February. Northern and southern 
Australian MUFs were 5 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
following geomagnetically active periods on 13 FEB. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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