[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 153/108

GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Feb             02 Feb             03 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            165/119


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 31 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       23   1154 4443
      Darwin               26   1154 4543
      Townsville           21   0154 4433
      Learmonth            26   1154 -54-
      Canberra             20   1244 4442
      Hobart               19   1243 4442
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 JAN : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             13   (Quiet)
      Hobart               38   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1300 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Feb    15    Unsettled with the chance of active periods. 
02 Feb    10    Quiet to unsettled 
03 Feb     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: A shock in the solar wind was observed at 0721 UT which 
produced a sudden impulse in the geomagnetic field at 0804UT 
of 40-60 nT across the Australian region. The impulse was followed 
by active to minor storm levels. The shock was most likely the 
result of the CME event of 28 Jan. The geomagnetic field is expected 
to be mostly quiet to unsettled with the chance of active periods 
for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : Began at 2045UT 28/01, Ended at 0045UT 30/01

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions have been depressed 15-20% after local 
dawn as the result of increased geomagnetic activity from the 
impact of a CME. Depressions of 15-20% are expected for early 
in the UT day of 1 February, with conditions returning to mostly 
normal following this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
31 Jan   149

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Feb    90    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
02 Feb   125    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Feb   125    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 29 January 
and is current for interval 31 January to 1 February. HF conditions 
have been depressed 15-20% after local dawn as the result of 
increased geomagnetic activity from the impact of a CME. Depressions 
of 15-20% are expected for early in the UT day of 1 February, 
with conditions returning to mostly normal following this period. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060