[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/2N    1648UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 275/227

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Dec             29 Dec             30 Dec
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   265/216            260/210            255/205
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9727 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 29 Dec. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2221 2222
      Darwin               5   2211 2223
      Learmonth            5   2112 2213
      Canberra             3   1--- ----
      Hobart               5   1221 2122
      Casey(Ant)          11   3--- 2231
      Davis(Ant)          17   333- 4333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 DEC : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              7   2001 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Dec    30    Active to Minor storm 
29 Dec    20    active 
30 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 27 December 
and is current for interval 28-29 December. Because of the 26 
Dec. CME event, magnetic field is expected to be affected from 
late 28 Dec.. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 26 12 2001 0610UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Fair           Fair           Poor(PCA)
29 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: As 26 Dec. CME will touch the earth from late 28 Dec., 
the HF propagation is expected to be affected then. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
27 Dec   155

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 112

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Dec   100    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
29 Dec   140    near predicted monthly values 
30 Dec   140    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 85 was issued on 27 December 
and is current for interval 28 December only. The ionosphere 
is expected to be depressed from late 28 Dec.. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.4E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 386 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    86500 K  Bz:   2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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