[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4 24/2241UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.2    0708UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.0    2037UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 259/209

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Dec             27 Dec             28 Dec
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   260/210            260/210            255/205
COMMENT: M class flares expected. Solar wind now nominal. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3333 2223
      Darwin               6   2222 1223
      Learmonth            8   2223 1322
      Canberra            11   3232 3---
      Hobart               9   3332 1223
      Casey(Ant)          18   4--4 3234
      Davis(Ant)          18   344- -234
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 DEC : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            67   (Active)
      Hobart              74   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             19   3354 4432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Dec     3    Quiet 
28 Dec     3    Quiet 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions observed at mid to high latitudes. 
Normal conditions expected today. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
25 Dec    98

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 112

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Dec   140    near predicted monthly values/enhanced 10-15% 
27 Dec   160    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
28 Dec   160    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depression observed after local dawn yesterday. 
MUFs are expcted to be near to above normal today. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 547 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   235000 K  Bz:  -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060