[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    1706UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 208/159

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Dec             21 Dec             22 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            195/147            185/138
COMMENT: Isolated M class event from a region which has been 
steadily growing as it approaches the west limb. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was southward 
by 5nT for much of the UT day. Previously M-flare(s) producing 
region 9715 is due for return to the north-east limb around 20 Dec. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3222 1222
      Darwin               7   2123 1222
      Learmonth            0   --00 0003
      Canberra             7   2223 1122
      Hobart               7   2223 1222
      Casey(Ant)          11   4--3 221-
      Davis(Ant)          17   43-- 3332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 DEC : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3123 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Dec    13    Unsettled, chance of active periods local night. 
22 Dec    10    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Weak recurrent activity possible 21 Dec. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair   
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mild degradation at high latitudes, probably associated 
with southward IMF. Further mild degradation possible 21 Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
19 Dec   150

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Dec   145    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
21 Dec   145    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
22 Dec   145    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 462 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   101000 K  Bz:  -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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