[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 December 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 203/154

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Dec             19 Dec             20 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            195/147            190/143

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
17/0410UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 17 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3433 3333
      Darwin               9   3322 2223
      Learmonth           17   3533 -22-
      Canberra            13   2333 3333
      Hobart              12   2333 2332
      Casey(Ant)          24   4543 3344
      Davis(Ant)          28   45-4 4433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 DEC : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   2333 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
17 Dec   109

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Dec   110    near predicted monthly values 
19 Dec   110    near predicted monthly values 
20 Dec   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 525 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    98700 K  Bz:  -4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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