[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M3/--    0634UT  confirmed  lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 221/171

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Dec             10 Dec             11 Dec
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            210/161            205/156

Previously X-flare(s) producing region 9704 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 10 Dec. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2221 2112
      Darwin               5   2221 2113
      Learmonth            4   2111 2112
      Canberra             4   2121 2111
      Hobart               4   2221 2012
      Casey(Ant)           8   3--3 210-
      Davis(Ant)          11   23-- 3322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 DEC : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            47   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   2101 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
08 Dec   120

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Dec   120    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Dec   120    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Dec   120    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 462 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:   112000 K  Bz:   3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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