[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 August 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6    0525UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.2    1257UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 197/149

GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Aug             31 Aug             01 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            200/152            205/156




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 29 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1223 1102
      Darwin               3   ---- -1--
      Townsville           2   0112 0102
      Learmonth            4   2222 0000
      Canberra             5   1223 1013
      Hobart               5   1223 1101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 AUG : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             15   4333 3432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
31 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Sep    23    Active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be active on 1 Sep 
due to recurrent coronal hole activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were not very degraded due to lack of 
geomagnetic activity following impulse in geomagnetic field. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
29 Aug   120

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Aug   120    near predicted monthly values 
31 Aug   120    near predicted monthly values 
01 Sep   111    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressed conditions are expected on 1 Sep due to geomagnetic 
activity. 

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