[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 August 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X5/3B    1645UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 199/151

GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Aug             27 Aug             28 Aug
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            195/147            200/152
COMMENT: The large region in the south-east remains very flare 
capabale following the X5 event. The X5 event was accompanied 
by a coronal mass ejection. The mass ejection was heavily biased 
to the south-east but still showed emission encircling the solar 
disk. A type II radio sweep with a speed of 1280km/sec was observed 
suggesting a shock arrival window of 11-12UT on 27 Aug. Solar 
wind speed ramped up towards the end of the UT day due to coronal 
hole effects. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   0112 2222
      Darwin               7   1222 3223
      Townsville           1   0000 1121
      Learmonth            7   0112 3232
      Canberra             8   1212 3232
      Hobart               4   0112 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 AUG : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1111 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Aug    13    Unsettled to active 
27 Aug    40    Minor storm chance of isolated major storm periods. 
28 Aug    25    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 24 August and 
is current for interval 27-28 August. Disturbance expected on 
27 Aug due to coronal mass ejection associated with X5 event. 
Also, coronal hole induced activity is also expected during the 
forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
27 Aug      Fair           Fair-Poor      Poor
28 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
25 Aug   108

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 45% during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Aug   100    Near predicted monthly values /depressed15%
28 Aug    80    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 24 August 
and is current for interval 25-28 August (SWFs) . Degraded HF 
conditions are expected local night on 27 Aug, with depressed 
MUFs likely after local dawn on 28 Aug. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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