[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 August 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 145/99

GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Aug             19 Aug             20 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            155/109

COMMENT: Strong shock observed in solar wind at 1015UT on 17 
Aug. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field became strongly southward by up to 30nT during period 10-20UT. 
This shock is from an erupting solar filamant on 14 Aug. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 17 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   0113 4555
      Darwin              22   1114 4555
      Townsville           9   0002 3344
      Learmonth           27   -224 4556
      Canberra            21   0004 4555
      Hobart              20   0113 4555
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 AUG : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              8   2102 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Aug    20    initially at active to minor storm levels
		then declining.
19 Aug    16    unsettled to active 
20 Aug    20    active, chance of minor storm periods.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 14 August and 
is current for interval 17-18 August. Weak sudden impulse of 
approximately 20nT observed at 1103UT. Storm levels followed 
impulse. The field is expected to gradually decline in activity. 
Recurrence suggests that active conditions can be expected from 
20 Aug. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 16 08 2001 0140UT and 
	    is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Aug      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
20 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions degreaded due to onset of 
geomagnetic activity and declining proton flux. Conditions at high 
latitudes expected to again briefly improve before become degraded 
(not as severely) from 20 Aug due to anticiapted coronal hole 
induced activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
17 Aug   109

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Aug    90    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
19 Aug   105    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Aug    95    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 15 August 
and is current for interval 17-18 August. Mild depression observed 
after local dawn southern region, following overnight geomagnetic 
activity. Northern region mUFs near normal. 

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