[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 August 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    0737UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 166/120

GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Aug             09 Aug             10 Aug
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            160/114            155/109

COMMENT: M class flares possible. The interplanetary magnetic 
field (IMF) was southward over the UT day. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2223 1112
      Darwin               5   2222 1112
      Townsville           4   2212 1112
      Learmonth            8   2223 2223
      Canberra             6   2223 1113
      Hobart               7   2223 2112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 AUG : 
      Darwin              16   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             21   3335 5433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Aug    13    Unsettled to Active 
09 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
07 Aug   114

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Aug   120    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Aug   120    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Aug   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 7 August 
and is current for interval 7-9 August (SWFs) . Equatorial region 
MUFs were enhanced yesterday and expected to be enhanced again 
today. 

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