[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 August 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 121/73

GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Aug             04 Aug             05 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             130/84
COMMENT: A solar region in the north-east quadrant of the solar 
disk has shown rapid growth overnight. M class flare activity 
is becoming increasingly likely. A discontinuity was observed 
in the ACE data around 14UT on 2 Aug, it is unclear whether this 
is related to recent filament eruptions or a possoble solar sector 
boundary crossing. ACE EPAM 47-65KeV data (a precursor to geomagnetic 
activity) remains elevated. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2221 1222
      Darwin               6   2222 2211
      Townsville           3   -210 0122
      Learmonth           10   2232 2333
      Canberra             3   1121 1111
      Hobart               3   1121 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 AUG : 
      Darwin              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              32   (Quiet to unsettled)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   3233 3322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Aug    16    active 
04 Aug    13    Unsettled to Active 
05 Aug    11    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Active conditions expected on 03 Aug due to disappearing 
solar filaments on 30-31 Jul. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected 03 Aug. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
02 Aug    95

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Aug    95    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
04 Aug    90    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
05 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected 03-04 Aug, southern region 
Aus/NZ, during local night hours. 

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