[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 July 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JULY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 117/69

GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Aug             02 Aug             03 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             125/78

COMMENT: It appears that the earth entered a coronal hole high 
speed wind stream around 04UT on 31 July. Solar wind speed gradually 
increased and is currently at around 600km/sec. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained mostly 
northward, reducing coronal hole geoeffectiveness. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 31 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   2432 4533
      Darwin              23   3532 3533
      Townsville           9   13-- ----
      Learmonth           23   3433 4533
      Canberra            17   2432 4433
      Hobart              17   2432 3443
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 JUL : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart              21   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   2122 2334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Aug    16    Unsettled to active 
02 Aug    12    Unsettled 
03 Aug     7    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible 01 Aug due to elevated 
solar wind speed from coronal hole. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mild degraded in HF conditions observed during local 
night hours at high latitudes. Further mild degradation expected 
for 01 Aug due to coronal hole effects. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
31 Jul   119

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Absorption and spread observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Aug    95    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
02 Aug   115    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Aug   115    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced during 
local night hours for southern Aus/NZ region. Some southern regional 
sites have become depressed after local dawn this morning, particularly 
Chrsitchurch, with depression of up to 30%. Northern regional 
MUFs have remained normal. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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