[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 April 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:**RED**   ION:**RED**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F    1915UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 191/143

GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Apr             29 Apr             30 Apr
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            180/133            175/129

COMMENT: Region 9433 has the possibility of producing a proton 
flare over the next couple of days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region        4   2211 1112
      Darwin                4   2211 1113
      Townsville            3   2210 1112
      Learmonth             6   2222 1222
      Canberra              3   2210 1111
      Hobart                3   2210 1101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 APR : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              4   (Quiet)
      Hobart                6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   1232 2321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Apr    30    Initially quiet to unsettled, with minor to major 
                storm levels possible in the latter half of the 
                UT day. 
29 Apr    50    Minor to major storm levels. 
30 Apr    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 27 April and 
is current for interval 28-29 April. A CME associated with the 
M7 flare observed at 1314UT on 26 April is expected to impact 
the Earth in the latter half of the UT day on 28 April. Minor 
to major storm levels are expected to follow. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
29 Apr      Normal-fair    Fair-poor      Poor          
30 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected following the impact 
of a CME anticipated to arrive late in the UT day of 28 April. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
27 Apr   132

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Apr   100    near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30% 
29 Apr    70    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
30 Apr   115    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 27 April 
and is current for interval 27-29 April (SWFs) . Degraded HF 
conditions are expected following the impact of a CME anticipated 
to arrive late in the UT day of 28 April. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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