[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/1N    0542UT  confirmed  lower  East Asia/ Australia
 M3/1N    0700UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian
 M1/1N    1253UT  possible   lower  European
 M2/1N    1812UT  probable   lower  East Pacific
 M2/--    2224UT  confirmed  lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 194/146

GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Apr             26 Apr             27 Apr
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            210/161            210/161

COMMENT: Region 9433 is prime for a major flare. Stay tuned. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region        6   2232 1113
      Darwin                6   2232 1113
      Townsville            7   22-- ----
      Learmonth             7   2232 2122
      Canberra              3   1221 1012
      Hobart                4   1231 1013
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 APR : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             21   4454 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
26 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
27 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 20 April and 
is current for interval 23-25 April. See solar comment. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: See solar comment. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
24 Apr   117

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Apr   120    near predicted monthly values 
26 Apr   120    near predicted monthly values 
27 Apr   120    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: See solar comment. 

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