[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M3/1N    2044UT  confirmed  lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 193/145

GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Apr             24 Apr             25 Apr
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            210/161            210/161

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Unsettled to Minor storm. 

Estimated Indices 22 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       18   3233 3535
      Darwin               20   4233 3535
      Townsville           20   4233 3534
      Learmonth            20   -333 3535
      Canberra             20   3234 3535
      Hobart               27   2243 4644
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 APR : 
      Darwin                4   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra              8   (Quiet)
      Hobart               17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        30
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   1212 2323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Apr    16    Unsettled to active 
24 Apr    12    Unsettled 
25 Apr    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 20 April and 
is current for interval 23-25 April. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
22 Apr   126

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Apr    90    Depressed 15-20% at middle to high latitudes, 
                near predicted monthly values middle to low latitudes. 
24 Apr   120    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Apr   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 22 April 
and is current for interval 23 April only. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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