[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/--    1135UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 145/99

GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Apr             21 Apr             22 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            165/119            175/129

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   2212 2113
      Darwin                4   2211 1114
      Townsville            4   2211 1113
      Learmonth             7   2222 2223
      Canberra              4   1212 2113
      Hobart                4   1212 2112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 APR : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             50   5774 3412     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
21 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
22 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 18 04 2001 0330UT and 
is in progress. Only very slight PCA was observed in Antarctica.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
19 Apr   133

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Apr   130    near predicted monthly values 
21 Apr   130    near predicted monthly values 
22 Apr   130    near predicted monthly values 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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