[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 April 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr:  Low

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    1715UT  possible   lower  South American/ Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 139/93

GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Apr             16 Apr             17 Apr
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             150/105
COMMENT: 9415 produced the M1 class event. This event was associated 
with a mass ejection. However, regions is now considered too 
far west to be geoeffective. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 14 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       15   3343 3323
      Darwin               15   3343 3323
      Townsville           14   3243 3323
      Learmonth            13   3333 3323
      Canberra             16   3343 3333
      Hobart               12   2333 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 APR : 
      Darwin               11   (Quiet)
      Townsville            8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             59   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              110   (Major storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        31
           Planetary             36   1137 6454     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Apr    40    Active to Minor storm, chance of major storm. 
16 Apr    18    active 
17 Apr    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 12 April and 
is current for interval 13-16 April. Geomagnetic storm activity 
from the X2 event has yet to eventuate. Shock arrival still possible 
over next 24 hours. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal         Fair           Poor-fair      
PCA Event : Began at 0930UT 10/04, Ended at 1120UT 13/04

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
16 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions possible next 24 hours if shock 
arrives from recent X2 flare. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
14 Apr    94

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Apr    95    Initially near normal, then depressed 10 to 20%.
16 Apr    70    Depressed 10 to 30%.
17 Apr   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 12 April 
and is current for interval 14-16 April. Degraded HF conditions 
expected if shock arrives from X2 flare. 

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