[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X2/3B    0526UT  probable   all    E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 170/124

GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Apr             12 Apr             13 Apr
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            160/114

COMMENT: Region 9415 has produced X2.3 flare and full halo CME 
observed after 0517UT on 10 Apr accompanied by strong type II 
and IV radio emissions. This region remains magnetically complex. 
Further M- and eventually X-class flares could be expected over 
the following days. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region        8   3212 2323
      Darwin                8   3212 2323
      Townsville            8   3212 2323
      Learmonth            10   3322 2323
      Canberra              9   3212 3322
      Hobart               10   3222 3322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 APR : 
      Darwin                4   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              2   (Quiet)
      Hobart                6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             19   2444 3532     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Apr    60    Storm levels 
12 Apr    30    Active to Minor storm 
13 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 10 April and 
is current for interval 11-13 April. Major storm levels of geomagnetic 
activity are expected on 11 Apr after the anticipated arrival 
on 11 Apr of two shocks associated with the M7.9 and X2.3 flares/CMEs 
observed after 1534UT on 9 Apr and 0517UT on 10 Apr, respectively. 
Active to minor storm levels of activity are likely to continue 
over 12 Apr. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 10 04 2001 0930UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Poor           Poor           Poor(PCA)
12 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts can be expected on daylight HF circuits. 
Degraded HF conditions are expected for 11 to 13 Apr period following 
the anticipated arrival of two shocks associated with the M7.9 
and X2.3 flares/full halo CMEs observed on 9 Apr and 10 Apr. 
Enhanced proton fluxes are affecting high-latitude HF comms. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
10 Apr   131

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Apr   100    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
12 Apr    85    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
13 Apr   110    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 10 April 
and is current for interval 11-13 April. Shortwave fadeouts expected 
on daylight HF circuits. Enhanced proton fluxes associated with 
both M7.9 and X2.3 flares from region 9415 on 9 Apr and 10 Apr 
are affecting high-latitude HF comms. Depressions are expected 
over the 11 to 13 Apr period after the anticipated arrival on 
11 Apr of two shocks associated with the M7.9 and X2.3 flares/CMEs 
observed after 1534UT on 9 Apr and 0517UT on 10 Apr, respectively. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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