[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.1    0226UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.2    0834UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M8.4    0924UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M5.1    1727UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 210/161

GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Apr             07 Apr             08 Apr
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   210/161            210/161            205/156

COMMENT: The proton fluxes associated with the recent X17 (Y1.7) 
flare from region 9393 are still above the event threshold. The 
active region 9415 on the south east quadrant has been slightly 
declining but retained a complex magnetic configuration. Further 
M-class and eventually X-class flares could be expected. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       11   2233 2333
      Darwin               11   2233 2334
      Townsville           10   2232 3323
      Learmonth            12   3233 2332
      Canberra             11   2233 3323
      Hobart               11   2233 2333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 APR : 
      Darwin               18   (Quiet)
      Townsville            2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             61   (Active)
      Hobart               77   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15   2222 3452     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Apr    12    Unsettled 
07 Apr    12    Unsettled 
08 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: The shock originating from region 9415 recent CME activity 
expected for the 5 April did not eventuate. There is a chance 
of unsettled to active conditions for the 8 April following the 
M5.1 flare and associated type IV from region 9415 possibly indicative 
of CME underway. The CME associated the M8.4 flare observed from 
region 9393 at 0922 UT on 5 April does not appear be earth directed 
and is unlekily to be geo-effective. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair      
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 03 04 2001 0015UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts can again be expected on daylight 
HF circuits. Degraded HF conditions observed over past 24 hours 
at polar latitudes due to proton event still in progress. Degraded 
HF conditions expected for 5 Apr did not eventuate. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
05 Apr   168

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Apr   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
07 Apr   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
08 Apr   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 5 April 
and is current for interval 6-8 April (SWFs) . Shortwave fadeouts 
expected on daylight HF circuits. Polar region HF comms still 
affected by PCA with proton fluxes still above event threshold. 
Depressed conditions for 5 April did not eventuate as the anticipated 
shock from region 9415 CME on 3 April did not hit. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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