[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 1 09:40:48 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.1 1113UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 246/196
GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C3.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 240/189 230/180 220/170
COMMENT: A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 0022UT.
A possible brief magnetopause crossing of geosynchronous orbit
may have occurred with shock arrival. Solar wind speed fluctuated
between 600-700km/sec for most of the UT day following shock.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
was strongly southward during interval 04-08UT and 14-18UT. Solar
wind speed remains elevated at 700km/sec at time of issue of
this report. Further flares and fadeouts likely from the large
solar region, which will rotate off disk around 4 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Severe storm levels.
Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A K
Australian Region 118 7775 6777
Darwin 105 7775 5677
Townsville 102 7774 5677
Learmonth 92 7665 6677
Canberra 138 6885 6776
Hobart 168 678- -876
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 MAR :
Darwin 174 (Severe storm)
Townsville 87 (Minor storm)
Learmonth 154 (Severe storm)
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 140
Planetary 150
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 1223 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Apr 40 Active to minor storm, chance of major storm periods.
02 Apr 20 Active
03 Apr 13 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 30 March and
is current for interval 30 March to 1 April. A sudden impulse
of 75nT was observed at 0051UT. Severe storm conditions followed
impulse. Aurora was sighted at mid latitudes, with sightings at
Canberra and Wollongong. Geomagnetic storm activity is expected
to decline over 01 Apr, with the chance of further major storm
periods during local night hours tonight due to sustained high
solar wind speed conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal-fair Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : Began at 1715UT 29/03, Ended at 0825UT 31/03.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Fair Fair-poor Poor
02 Apr Fair-normal Fair Poor-fair
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were very poor over during local night
hours at mid to high latitudes. Polar region HF comms unusable
at times during the past 24 hours. Continued strongly degraded conditions
expected for next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Mar 171
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Spread F and strong absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
Mid to high latitudes:
01 Apr 30 depressed 20 to 40%/near predicted monthly values
Low latitudes:
01 Apr 120 near normal, may become depressed.
02 Apr 100 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Apr 140 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 28 March
and is current for interval 30 March to 1 April. Strong ionospheric
storm depression response observed from stations south of Brisbane.
At time of issue of this report Vanimo, Darwin and Townsville MUFs
were near normal, communicators operating within low latitudes can
continue to use a T index of around 120. However, they should be
ready to use lower frequencies than normal if low latutude
station eventually respond to geomagnetic activity. Southern
region communicators (mid to high latitudes) can expect very
depressed and degraded conditions.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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