[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 October 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z OCTOBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 159/113

GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Oct             26 Oct             27 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            165/119

COMMENT: Solar wind speed declining to nominal levels. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 24 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       11   2234 3112
      Darwin               11   2234 3112
      Townsville           10   2134 3113
      Learmonth             8   3123 3113
      Canberra             12   2224 4212
      Hobart               11   2234 3111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 OCT : 
      Darwin               28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             57   (Unsettled)
      Hobart               59   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15   4344 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Oct    15    Unsettled 
26 Oct    10    Quiet to unsettled 
27 Oct     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild coronal hole induced activity declining. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No proton event in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
24 Oct   145

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Spread F observed, local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 135

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Oct   140    near predicted monthly values 
26 Oct   140    near predicted monthly values 
27 Oct   140    Near predicted monthly values 



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